一个新的世界秩序:解释古典金本位的出现

C. Meissner
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引用次数: 49

摘要

古典金本位制在1870年后才逐渐成为一种国际货币制度。本文提供了一项跨国分析,分析了为什么一些国家采取了这种做法。我使用持续时间分析来表明,通过贸易渠道运作的网络外部性有助于解释金本位的扩散模式。当一个国家与其他金本位国家的贸易占国内生产总值的比重较大时,它就会更早地采用金本位制。金融体系的质量也起到了一定作用。有一种观点得到了支持,即纸币发行的黄金支撑疲弱(可能是由于财政状况不可持续或银行体系不健全),推迟了纸币发行的实施。巨大的公共债务负担也导致了较晚的转型。数据也与各国较早采用金本位以降低国际资本市场借贷成本的观点相一致。我没有发现任何证据表明汇率波动水平或农业利益对采用时间有影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard
The classical gold standard only gradually became an international monetary regime after 1870. This paper provides a cross-country analysis of why countries adopted when they did. I use duration analysis to show that network externalities operating through trade channels help explain the pattern of diffusion of the gold standard. Countries adopted the gold standard sooner when they had a large share of trade with other gold countries relative to GDP. The quality of the financial system also played a role. Support is found for the idea that a weak gold backing for paper currency emissions, possibly because of an unsustainable fiscal position or an un-sound banking system, delayed adoption. A large public debt burden also led to a later transition. Data are also consistent with the idea that nations adopted the gold standard earlier to lower the costs of borrowing on international capital markets. I find no evidence that the level of exchange rate volatility or agricultural interests mattered for the timing of adoption.
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