全球大流行(covid-19)给欧洲银行业留下了深刻的记忆

R. Dias, J. M. Pereira, L. Carvalho
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究旨在分析2020年全球大流行在2018年1月1日至2020年8月10日期间对法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙等国银行业的影响,样本分为两个子期:第一个子期为2018年1月至2019年8月(covid前);第二次是从2019年9月至2020年8月(Covid-19)。我们采用了不同的方法来进行这一分析,以验证:(i)全球大流行(Covid-19)是否加剧了欧洲银行业回报率的持续性?(ii)长记忆的存在增加了市场之间的同步性?主要研究结果表明,市场效率假设的假设可能受到挑战,因为银行部门的行为可能具有可预测性,并且所分析的部门也显示出明显的整合水平,从而质疑有效投资组合多样化的假设。这些结果似乎对在这些特定行业寻找机会的投资者和政策制定者进行机构改革以提高效率和促进金融市场可持续增长感兴趣。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC (COVID-19) HAS CAUSED LONG MEMORIES IN EUROPE’S BANKING SECTOR
This study aims to analyze the impact of the 2020 global pandemic on the banking sectors of the countries of France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain for the period from January 1, 2018, to August 10, 2020, with the sample being split into two subperiods: first subperiod from January 2018 to August 2019 (Pre-Covid); and the second from September 2019 to August 2020 (Covid-19). Different approaches were undertaken to perform this analysis, in order to verify whether: (i) the global pandemic (Covid-19) accentuated the persistence, in the returns, of the European banking sectors? (ii) the presence of long memories increases the synchronizations between markets? The main findings show that the assumption of the market efficiency hypothesis may be challenged, due to the possible predictability of the banking sectors’ actions, and that the analyzed sectors also show marked levels of integration, thus questioning the hypothesis of efficient portfolio diversification. The results seem to be of interest to investors looking for opportunities in these specific sectors and for policymakers to carry out institutional reforms to increase efficiency and promote sustainable growth of financial markets.
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