在产量数据限制下设计天气衍生品的实用方法

L. Sanchez, D. Vedenov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文实现了几个契约设计策略,以评估简单的半幼稚索引构建方法的有效性,这种方法可以在只有短数据和/或聚合数据系列可用的情况下实现。为了减轻现有产量数据的汇总性,我们试图研究具有相同生长条件的地区,而不是简单地位于相同的行政边界内。为了避免对数据要求苛刻的分析,我们使用农艺需求来指定保险合同的参数,本文称之为农艺合同。本文对构建的天气指数合约的风险降低进行了评估,并与文献中建议的“最优”合约的绩效进行了比较。虽然农艺合同不能达到与“最优”合同相同的风险降低程度,但它们确实提供了有意义的风险保护,而且通常保费较低。正如预期的那样,农艺合同在同质产区表现更好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Practical Approaches to Designing Weather Derivatives Under Yield Data Limitations
This paper implements several contract design strategies to evaluate the effectiveness of simple semi-naive approach to index construction that can be implemented in situations where only short and/or aggregate data series are available. In order to mitigate the aggregate nature of the available yield data, we attempt to look at areas sharing the same growing conditions rather than simply located within the same administrative boundaries. In order to avoid the need for data-demanding analysis, we use agronomic requirements to specify parameters of insurance contracts, called agronomic contracts in this paper. The risk reduction of thus constructed weather index contracts, are evaluated and compared with the performance of the “optimal” contracts suggested in the literature. While the agronomic contracts do not achieve the same degree of risk reduction as the “optimal” contracts, they do provide meaningful risk protection and typically at lower premiums. As expected, the agronomic contracts perform better in homogeneous production areas.
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