储蓄银行贷款的选举周期

Florian Englmaier, Till Stowasser
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引用次数: 108

摘要

我们提供的证据表明,德国储蓄银行——根据法律,地方政客参与其管理——会根据地方选举周期系统地调整贷款政策。各州县选举的不同时间,以及合作银行控制组的存在——合作银行与储蓄银行非常相似,但缺乏政治联系——使得可以清楚地确定县选举对储蓄银行贷款的因果影响。这些效果在经济上是有意义的,并且对各种规格具有鲁棒性。此外,由政治因素引起的贷款增加,将加剧现任政党的巩固和即将到来的选举的竞争。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending
We provide evidence that German savings banks – where local politicians are by law involved in their management – systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timing of county elections across states and the existence of a control group of cooperative banks – that are very similar to savings banks but lack their political connectedness – allow for clean identification of causal effects of county elections on savings banks’ lending. These effects are economically meaningful and robust to various specifications. Moreover, politically induced lending increases in incumbent party entrenchment and in the contestedness of upcoming elections.
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