应对全球气候变化的适应、减缓和“绿色”研发——来自经验综合评估工作的见解

F. Bosello
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引用次数: 131

摘要

这项工作为在宏观层面分析适应和缓解政策之间的关系制定了一个框架。考虑存量污染的FEEM-RICE增长模型,内生研发,但适应的可能性减少了缓解需求,并在一定程度上排挤了其他形式的投资,如研发投资。还描述了战略的最优跨期分布:它要求预测在气候损害较低时就应该开始的缓解努力,并将适应干预推迟到气候损害相当大时。因此,适应的可能性并不是推迟减排活动的理由。敏感性分析表明,这些结果对不同的参数化,特别是对预期气候变化损害和折现率的变化具有稳健性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Adaptation, Mitigation and 'Green' R&D to Combat Global Climate Change - Insights from an Empirical Integrated Assessment Exercise
This work develops a framework for the analysis at the macro-level of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation policies. The FEEM-RICE growth model with stock pollution, endogenous RD nonetheless the possibility to adapt reduces the need to mitigate and partly crowds out other forms of investment like those in R&D. The optimal intertemporal distribution of strategies is also described: it requires to anticipate mitigation effort that should start already when climate damages are low and postpone adaptation intervention until they are substantial. Thus the possibility to adapt is not a justification to delay abatement activities. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of these results to different parameterizations, in particular to changes in expected climate-change damages and in the discount rates.
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