Wind Power Investment Decision-Making Optimization Model Based on Real Option Method

At present, China's renewable energy power policy is in the transition stage from fixed on grid electricity price to quota system. Considering the length of the parallel period of the two policies and the relative market share of the two policies, a wind power investment decision model under the uncertainty of green certificate price is established based on the real option principle, and the optimal investment opportunity of wind power generators is solved by using the dynamic programming method. The parameters are calibrated according to the actual situation of wind power development in China, the key factors influencing investment decisions in the policy and their action mechanisms are analyzed, and the model results are empirically discussed in combination with the average price of wind power green certificates in the trial stage of green certificate trading. The results show that the longer parallel period of fixed feed in tariff and quota system and the higher proportion of fixed feed in tariff policy are conducive to reducing the investment threshold, while the increase of green certificate price growth rate and volatility will delay investors' investment decisions. While effectively encouraging investors to invest in wind power projects, the market share of the quota system policy should not be higher than 50% at the current stage in order to achieve the goal of full parity Internet access and the formal implementation of the quota system policy in the early stage of the "fourteenth five year plan" for wind power.