第五波之谜——地球对它来说太小了吗?

Jiří Dobrylovský
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引用次数: 0

摘要

长波是最长的经济周期,长度约为50-60年。大多数长波理论的拥护者都确信长波理论与最高水平的创新之间的关系。最重要的长波理论家是康德拉季耶夫和熊彼特。人们普遍认为,自工业革命开始以来,已经经历了4个完整的周期,即所谓的Kwaves。然而,经济学家们却有不同的看法,到底是我们现在见证了5波浪潮的开始,还是5波浪潮还没有开始。这5次浪潮应该由信息技术发起,分别由所谓的经济4.0发起。然而,如果5k波已经在进行,那么它的过程与前四波的上升阶段明显不同,这是一个问题,是什么导致了这一点。由于前四次k波总是导致市场的显著领土增长,因此有一个具有挑衅性的问题,对于等待已久的5波来说,地球是否已经太小了,如果这一波与向空间的扩张无关。在这个方向上的第一次努力这些天已经可以看到。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mystery of the 5th wave — is the Earth too small for it?
Long waves are the longest economic cycle with an approximate length of 50-60 years. Most of the exponents of the long wave theory are convinced about their relation to innovations of the highest level. The most important theoreticians of long waves are N.D.Kondratiev and J.A.Schumpeter. It is generally accepted that there have been 4 whole cycles, so called Kwaves, since the beginning of the industrial revolution. However, economists differ in the opinion, whether we are witnessing the beginning of the 5 wave now, or the 5 wave has not started yet. This 5 wave should be initiated by information technologies, respectively by the so-called economy 4.0. However, if the 5 K-wave is already going on, then its course is significantly different from the upswing phase of the previous four waves and there is a question, what caused this. As the previous four K-waves always led to a significant territorial growth in markets, there is a provocative question, whether the Earth is not already too small for the awaited 5 wave and if this wave is not connected with expansion into the space. The first efforts in this direction can be seen already these days.
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