德国港口基础设施的长影——地区繁荣的原因还是后果?

P. Breidenbach, T. Mitze
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引用次数: 2

摘要

运输基础设施被视为区域增长和发展的重要决定因素。虽然这一预测尤其适用于基于内生增长理论的理论视角,但从实证角度来看,验证这种因果关系并不容易。造成这一困难的主要原因是,很难衡量交通基础设施是否确实是区域发展的外生驱动因素,还是只是繁荣地区更高交通需求的内生反映。本文分析了港口设施对德国地区收入水平的长期影响。由于“反向因果关系”问题很可能适用于我们的样本设置,因此我们使用基于外源性长期工具的识别策略。特别是,在工业革命之前建造的港口设施(大约1850年在德国)可以被视为当前港口基础设施的适当工具,因为它们是最近经济发展的外生因素。使用1991-2008年的德国区域数据,我们的结果暗示港口位置与区域人均GDP之间存在正相关关系,但没有提供因果关系的证据。人口水平的区域差异是衡量集聚效应的一个更普遍的指标,然而,从港口基础设施供应到人口水平增加的因果关系仍然成立。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Long Shadow of Port Infrastructure in Germany – Cause or Consequence of Regional Prosperity?
Transport infrastructure is viewed as an important determinant of regional growth and development. While this prediction especially holds from a theoretical perspective based on endogenous growth theories, from an empirical perspective it is not easy to verify this causal link, though. The main reason for this difficulty is that it is hard to measure whether transport infrastructure is indeed the exogenous driver of regional development or whether it is rather an endogenous reflection of the higher transportation demand in prospering regions. In this paper, we analyse the long-run effect of port facilities on regional income levels in Germany. Since it is very likely that the “reversed causality” problem applies to our sample setting, we use an identification strategy that is based on exogenous longrun instruments. In particular, port facilities built before the industrial revolution (about 1850 in Germany) can be seen as an adequate instrument for current port infrastructure since they are exogenous to recent economic development. Using German regional data for 1991-2008, our results hint at a positive correlation between port locations and regional per capita GDP, but do not provide evidence for a causal relationship. For the regional variation of population levels as a more general indicator for agglomeration effects, the causal relationship running from port infrastructure provision to increasing population levels holds nonetheless.
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