新冠疫情、人的生命和生存的希望

N. V
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引用次数: 0

摘要

导言-持续的Covid-19灾难:作为一种疾病,Covid-19仍处于大流行阶段,因为感染在全球范围内持续增加,各种人群仍然易感。SARS-CoV-2很可能不会被根除,而是会成为地方性疾病,并在未来几年继续传播,并在全球部分人群中引起感染。它可能演变成具有新的突变和变异的更具传染性和毒性的形式,并且随着新人群和世界区域的参与,相关因素可能使总体情况恶化。突变、变异和免疫逃逸:由于病毒有更多的变异机会,这种有增无减的流行增加了突变的风险。此外,在发病率高的地区,选择压力有利于出现逃避中和抗体的变异。此外,随着人群接受疫苗接种,推测免疫压力通过选择逃逸突变体来促进和加速这些变异的出现。在适当的时候,这些选定的变体将取代以前的病毒版本,在以后推动大流行或地方病。与SARS-CoV-2相关的不确定性:与SARS-CoV-2病毒及其引起的疾病存在各种相关的不确定性。由于进化的基因组变化,病毒引起不稳定和不稳定的免疫反应。同时,宿主因素变化很大,很大程度上是不可控的。此外,由于多种原因,COVID-19的控制措施和现有疫苗可能无法大幅降低感染流行率。这些流行病学驱动因素将导致病毒的持续存在和疾病的地方性,其间穿插周期性爆发和重新出现。Covid-19大流行期间的人类生活:随着Covid-19成为一种地方病,SARS-CoV-2病毒将在儿童时期首次接触,通常表现轻微或无表现。这些人群将通过自然感染或疫苗接种产生一定的免疫力,可能不会患上严重疾病,但患有合并症或免疫功能低下的人群除外,疾病的病程将取决于变异的演变、疫苗的效力和对病毒的免疫性质。针对SARS-CoV-2的群体免疫力可能仍然是一个神话,由于个体免疫力不稳定,在6-8个月后会减弱,因此需要定期接种加强剂量的更新疫苗。未来情景和解决方案:为缓解SARS-CoV-2病毒的传播,各国不时实施了广泛的控制措施,未来也可能采取这些措施。为了快速有效地利用流行病学数据,需要具备基因分型和基因组测序能力。与此同时,正在大规模部署的COVID-19疫苗需要快速有效的全球努力。下一代疫苗除了产生针对病毒的抗体外,还可能有效地刺激T细胞,并且有可能设计一种通用冠状病毒疫苗或泛病毒疫苗,用于免疫多种变体和毒株。在治疗方面,使用益生菌作为辅助治疗可以改善COVID-19的预后和临床结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Covid Calamity, the Human Life, and the Surviving Hope
Introduction - Ongoing Covid-19 Calamity: As a disease, COVID-19 is still in the pandemic phase because infections continue to increasingly occur world-wide and various population groups are still susceptible. It is likely that the SARS-CoV-2 will not be eradicated but become endemic and continue to circulate and cause infections in pockets of the global populations for years to come. It may evolve into more transmissible and virulent forms with novel mutations and variants, and associated factors may worsen the overall scenario with involvement of newer population groups and world regions. Mutations, Variants and Immune Escape: The unabated prevalence increases risk of mutations, as the virus has more chances to mutate. Further, in areas where the incidence rates are high, selection pressures favour the emergence of variants that evade neutralising antibodies. Furthermore, as population groups receive vaccination, immune pressure is conjectured to facilitate and speed up the emergence of such variants by selecting for escape mutants. In due course, these selected variants would replace previous versions of the virus propelling the pandemic or the endemic disease later on. Associated Uncertainties with SARS-CoV-2: There are various associated uncertainties with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the disease it causes. Due to evolving genomic changes, the virus elicits erratic and labile immune response. Simultaneously, the host factors are highly variable and largely uncontrollable. Further, the control measures and available vaccines for COVID-19 may not reduce the prevalence of infections drastically for multiple reasons. These epidemiological drivers would lead to persistence of the virus and endemicity of the disease interspersed by periodic outbreaks and re-emergence. The Human Life during Covid-19 Pandemic: With COVID-19 becoming an endemic disease, the SARS-CoV-2 virus would be first encountered during childhood, typically causing mild manifestations or none. The population groups will develop some immunity through natural infection or vaccination and may not suffer with severe illness, except in those with comorbid conditions or immune-compromised states, and the disease course would depend on evolving variants, efficacy of vaccines, and nature of immunity to the virus. The herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may remain a myth and with individual immunity being labile and waning after 6-8 months, booster doses of updated vaccine will be required at regular intervals. Future Scenario and Search for Solutions: To mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus, various countries have implemented a wide range of control measures from time to time and likely to resort to, in future as well. There is need for genotyping and genomic sequencing capability for quick and effective utilization of epidemiological data. Simultaneously, the large deployment of COVID-19 vaccines under way needs a rapid and effective global effort. The next-generation vaccines may stimulate T cells effectively, apart from generating antibodies against the virus, and there is possibility of designing a universal coronavirus vaccine or pan-virus vaccine for immunisation against multiple variants and strains. On the therapeutic side, use of probiotics as adjuvant therapy may Improve the prognosis and clinical outcomes in COVID-19.
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