处于十字路口的战略核条约制度。(我)可能寻找新的平衡点?

M. Marinov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

“全球主要核国家之间战略核能力的质量和数量平衡一直是一个长期存在的国际双边和多边条约制度的主题,自21世纪初以来,该制度经历了一个不断退化的过程。随着一个更具对抗性的多极世界秩序的逐步建立,条约制度及其为国际安全提供的保障已进一步受到威胁。本文将研究核条约制度的决定性特征,在过去几十年中导致美利坚合众国和俄罗斯联邦这两个核超级大国之间达到平衡点的因素,以及在当代破坏这种平衡的变革性因素。此外,本文将把对未来核军备控制的讨论扩展到不断变化的地缘政治格局和新的全球大国的崛起,如中华人民共和国。最终,该文件试图建立核武器辩论未来演变的框架,以及在上述国家行为体之间达到新的稳定和威慑点的可能性。”
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Strategic Nuclear Treaty Regime at a Crossroads. The (Im)Possible Search for a New Point of Balance?
"The qualitative and quantitative balance in strategic nuclear capabilities between major global nuclear-armed states had been the subject of a longstanding international bilateral and multilateral treaty regime, which since the onset of the 21st century has undergone a process of continual degradation. With the gradual establishment of a more confrontational multipolar world order, the treaty regime as well as the guarantees it provided for international security have come into further peril. The present paper will examine the defining characteristics of the nuclear treaty regime, the factors leading to a point of balance in preceding decades between the nuclear superpowers of the United States of America and the Russian Federation, and the transformational factors, which have destabilised the balance in contemporary times. Furthermore, the paper will extend the discussion on the future of nuclear arms control to the changing geopolitical landscape and the rise of new major global powers such as the People’s Republic of China. Ultimately the paper, attempts to establish the framework of the future evolution of the nuclear arms debate and the possibilities of reaching a new point of stability and deterrence between the mentioned state actors."
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