{"title":"信息不对称条件下货币联盟的潜在产出与财政规则","authors":"Luigi Marattin, Simone Meraglia","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2632004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information on member states’ potential output and (ii) bail-out among member states. The first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle, that is, on member states’ output gap. In the presence of asymmetric information and bailout, the first-best deficit is not implementable. Bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states (lenders) and induces overborrowing by member states characterized by a low output gap. The Monetary Union can design a mechanism such that a member state with a smaller negative output gap runs an optimal budget deficit upon receiving a transfer form the Union. We show that, this ‘cyclically-contingent’ fiscal framework Pareto dominates the ‘cyclically-adjusted’ fiscal rule currently enforced by the European Monetary Union. Our model can then account for a situation where both asymmetric information over cyclical positions and the presence of bail-out among member states does not induce borrowing distortions.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2015-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union Under Asymmetric Information\",\"authors\":\"Luigi Marattin, Simone Meraglia\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/SSRN.2632004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information on member states’ potential output and (ii) bail-out among member states. The first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle, that is, on member states’ output gap. In the presence of asymmetric information and bailout, the first-best deficit is not implementable. Bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states (lenders) and induces overborrowing by member states characterized by a low output gap. The Monetary Union can design a mechanism such that a member state with a smaller negative output gap runs an optimal budget deficit upon receiving a transfer form the Union. We show that, this ‘cyclically-contingent’ fiscal framework Pareto dominates the ‘cyclically-adjusted’ fiscal rule currently enforced by the European Monetary Union. Our model can then account for a situation where both asymmetric information over cyclical positions and the presence of bail-out among member states does not induce borrowing distortions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":146720,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2015-07-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2632004\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2632004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union Under Asymmetric Information
We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information on member states’ potential output and (ii) bail-out among member states. The first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle, that is, on member states’ output gap. In the presence of asymmetric information and bailout, the first-best deficit is not implementable. Bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states (lenders) and induces overborrowing by member states characterized by a low output gap. The Monetary Union can design a mechanism such that a member state with a smaller negative output gap runs an optimal budget deficit upon receiving a transfer form the Union. We show that, this ‘cyclically-contingent’ fiscal framework Pareto dominates the ‘cyclically-adjusted’ fiscal rule currently enforced by the European Monetary Union. Our model can then account for a situation where both asymmetric information over cyclical positions and the presence of bail-out among member states does not induce borrowing distortions.