PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"The Impact of the Euro on Trade: Two Decades into Monetary Union","authors":"Vanessa Gunnella, Laura Lebastard, Paloma López-García, Roberta Serafini, Alessandro Zona Mattioli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3941630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3941630","url":null,"abstract":"The consensus back in 2008 – ten years after the introduction of the euro – was that the adoption of a common currency had made a limited impact of around 2% in total on the trade flows of the first wave of euro area countries (Baldwin et al., 2008). Since then, six more countries have joined the euro area, and firms have internationalised their production processes. These two phenomena are interrelated and may have changed the way the common currency affects the euro area economy. Therefore, with the common currency now into its third decade – and with more countries queuing to adopt it – this paper revisits the trade effects of the euro, focusing on the newer euro adopters (i.e. those countries that have adopted the euro since 2007) and their interaction with the first wave of euro area members via supply chains. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, it revisits the estimated aggregate impact of the euro on euro area trade, as well as on trade within and between the two waves of adopters. Data on bilateral flows between 1990 and 2015 for an extended sample of countries to estimate a gravity equation indicate a significant trade impact, ranging between 4.3% and 6.3% in total on average, with the magnitude being the highest for exports from the second wave of adopters to the first wave of adopters. If a synthetic control approach (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) is used instead, the estimated gains associated with euro adoption are greater. In particular, exports of both intermediate and final products from countries belonging to the first wave of euro adopters to those belonging to the second wave are estimated to have increased by about 30% using this approach. The second contribution made by this paper relates to the channels through which trade might be affected by a currency union. This question is explored by looking separately at trade in intermediate goods and final products. While we find that trade gains were mainly driven by trade in intermediate goods among countries that adopted the currency earlier (5.3%), our results also show that the euro had a positive effect on the exports of final products from the second wave of adopters to other euro area countries. This effect is as high as 10.6% with the gravity model and 32% with the synthetic control approach. One of the reasons for the difference in the range of estimates between the two approaches might be that the gravity model can control for unobserved characteristics via fixed effects, while the synthetic control approach may fail to do so. These results suggest that the euro facilitated the establishment and expansion of international production chains in Europe. In turn, this is likely to have increased business cycle synchronisation in the euro area and to have supported market access for later adopters. JEL Classification: F14, F15","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115446568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future of the ESM within a Hybrid EMU Law","authors":"Giovanni Zaccaroni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3689547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3689547","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the evolution of the support offered to the Eurozone Member States by the European Stability Mechanism. The paper analyses its functioning and explains the plans for its reform, both within and outside the EU Treaty framework. The paper then concludes stressing how the evolution of the European Stability Mechanism contributes to the consolidation of a hybrid EMU architecture, where the interaction between Treaty and non-Treaty norms raises a variety of legal and political challenges.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130222285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The International Dimension of an Incomplete Emu","authors":"Demosthenes Ioannou, Livio Stracca, M. Pagliari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3680589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3680589","url":null,"abstract":"This paper quantifies the economic influence that shocks to EMU cohesion, which in turn reflect the incomplete nature of the monetary union, have on the rest of the world. Disentangling euro area stress shocks and global risk aversion shocks based on a combination of sign, magnitude and narrative restrictions in a daily Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with financial variables. We find that the effects of euro area stress shocks are significant not only for the euro area but also for the rest of the world. Notably, an increase in euro area stress entails a slowdown of economic activity in the rest of the world, as well as a fall in imports/exports of both the euro area and the rest of the world. A decrease in euro area stress has somewhat more widespread beneficial effects on both economic performance and global trade activity. JEL Classification: C23, C32, F02, F33","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129678154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stabilization and the Policy Mix in a Monetary Union","authors":"María Malmierca","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3541772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541772","url":null,"abstract":"The need for macroprudential policy to “lean against the wind” of credit cycles at the aim of financial and hence macroeconomic stability is a common belief. Which design of macroprudential policy might attain the greatest stability for the economy is still an open debate. This paper builds a two-country DSGE model for a monetary union and analyzes, through different macroprudential scenarios, the response of the main variables to an asymmetric credit risk shock. When national macroprudential policies are implemented, macroeconomic and financial stability is reached in both countries, mainly due to the cancellation of the private-public debt channel. When macroprudential policies are supranational, macroeconomic stability is higher in the country that suffers the shock while the other country is destabilized, mainly due to the open economy channel.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131077117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Europe 1957 to 1979: From the Common Market to the European Monetary System","authors":"J. Halévi","doi":"10.36687/inetwp101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp101","url":null,"abstract":"This essay deals with the contradictory dynamics that engulfed Europe from 1959 to 1979, the year of the launching of the European Monetary System. It focuses on how the macroeconomic framework of stop-go policies in the 1960s ended up privileging external – intra-European - exports at the expense of domestic demand. The paper offers a very tentative explanation as to why stop-go policies, by weakening domestic demand, did not put an end to the to the ‘long boom’ earlier as they should have. The French crisis of 1968-69 leading to the demise of De Gaulle is discussed at length, as is the renewal of the German export drive in the wake of a nominal revaluation of the D-Mark in 1969. Finally, the revival of labor struggles in Italy in the same year is put in the context of the structural weaknesses of the Italian economy as analyzed by the late Marcello de Cecco. The conclusion is that European countries had neither the political culture nor the institutional mechanisms to coordinate mutually advantageous policies. Their so-called cooperation was an exercise in establishing hegemony while defending the interests specific to the dominant economic groups of each country. The essay then deals with the formation of the EMS as an expression of efforts to establish and enforce economic dominance.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115583855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the Benefits of Labor Mobility in a Currency Union","authors":"C. House, C. Proebsting, L. Tesar","doi":"10.3386/W25347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25347","url":null,"abstract":"Unemployment differentials are bigger in Europe than in the United States. Migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in Europe. Mundell (1961) argued that factor mobility is a precondition for a successful currency union. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration and search frictions to quantify the benefits of increased labor mobility in Europe and compare this outcome to a case of fully flexible exchange rates. Labor mobility and flexible exchange rates both work to reduce unemployment and per capita GDP differentials across countries provided that monetary policy is sufficiently responsive to national output.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128987664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union","authors":"Alla Myrvoda, J. Reynaud","doi":"10.5089/9781484348291.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484348291.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127356295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Behavior of Retail Prices in Common Currency Areas: The Case of the Eurozone","authors":"Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Olena Ogrokhina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3057409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3057409","url":null,"abstract":"Does a common currency lead to price convergence? In this paper we both theoretically and empirically show that the effect of a common currency is ambiguous. First, we extend the Ganslandt and Maskus (2007) model of vertical pricing with parallel trade. Our innovation is to consider both domestic trade, where trading costs are relatively low, and international trade, where trading costs are relatively high. If trading costs decline, the model predicts price divergence in the former case, and price convergence in the latter case. Second, using the introduction of the euro as a natural experiment that reduced trading costs, we employ difference-in-differences estimation strategy to test the model's predictions. Our results show that while individual goods prices between countries converged by 2%, within-country prices diverged by 4%, supporting the predictions of our model.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125523380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-Assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects","authors":"Mario Larch, Joschka Wanner, Y. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2983709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2983709","url":null,"abstract":"Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues limit choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we unveil an iterative PPML estimator which flexibly accounts for multilateral resistance, pair-specific heterogeneity, and correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. The effect of non-Euro CUs, however, is large and significant. Notably, linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122470735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Quarterly Indicators of Economic Activity for the States of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union","authors":"Shane R. Lowe, Tiffany Grosvenor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2793923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2793923","url":null,"abstract":"Indicators of economic activity provide key inputs into policymakers’, business persons’, investors’ and consumers’ decision making processes. However, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) currently only publishes annual gross domestic product (GDP) series for each of the eight member states on which it reports, with quarterly reports providing qualitative guidance as to the general direction of economic activity. This study applies the technique of Chow and Lin (1971) to related, high-frequency macroeconomic variables in an attempt to produce quarterly estimates of economic activity for each member of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) over the period 1993 to 2014. The results indicated that changes in our quarterly GDP estimates generally track the ECCB’s approximations regarding the direction of economic activity for most economies and at least match estimates from a univariate model for seven of the eight countries.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130520969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}