“With Deep Regret and Reluctance”

On January 9, 2020, a compromise agreement was reached that promised “a fair and balanced basis upon which to restore the institutions” of Northern Ireland’s system of governance. Governance refers, broadly, to the ways in which authority in a country is exercised. How are governments selected, monitored, and replaced? What is the capacity of the government to develop and implement sound policies? To what degree do the citizens respect the state and the institutions that govern them? Nearly all early warning systems for violent conflict include various traits of governance as risk factors. In contemporary Northern Ireland, where politics is now the weapon of choice, this chapter will consider five specific risk factors related to the practice of governance: (1) regime type, (2) state legitimacy deficit, (3) weakness of state structures, (4) identity-based polar factionalism, and (5) systematic state-led discrimination.