2001年澳大利亚联邦选举中的信息流动与选民决策:国际和国内问题的作用

David Denemark
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引用次数: 10

摘要

本文检视2001年澳洲联邦大选期间,电视报导在选民决策过程中所扮演的角色。这次选举是在发生重大的寻求庇护者事件和9 / 11恐怖攻击事件数周后举行的。这是通过探究选民对两种截然不同的、引人注目的、主导媒体竞选报道的问题的不同依赖来实现的:一是整个选举年一直是焦点的国内问题(尤其是健康、教育和税收),二是在选举开始前才占据中心位置的国际问题(难民和寻求庇护者、恐怖主义、国防和国家安全)。通过对电视报道的原创内容分析和2001年澳大利亚选举调查,互动效应模型得出了选民群体对国际和国内依赖的显著不同模式。这些影响取决于个人投票选择的时间,以及他们现有的政治兴趣和信息的水平。中等兴趣的选民基本上是在选举开始时决定他们的投票选择的,他们最有可能把国际问题作为他们投票选择的关键。政治兴趣水平较低的选民,在选举日之前或当天做出决定,明显更依赖于国内问题。这些模式代表了Zaller(1989)竞选信息流模型的一种变体,并表明一个单一的、高强度的竞选活动——特别是在澳大利亚的强制投票系统中,它迫使该国最不感兴趣和最不知情的个人参与——可以在其中维持两个不同的议题议程,具有不同认知技能和对电视线索的反应的选民不同地利用这些议程来告知他们的投票选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Information Flow and Voter Decision Making in the 2001 Australian Federal Election: The Role of International and Domestic Issues
This article examines the role of TV coverage in voter decision making during the 2001 Australian federal election campaign, called just weeks after a major asylum seeker incident and the September 11 terrorist attacks. It does so by exploring voters’ differential reliance on two distinct, high profile sets of issues that dominated media election campaign coverage: the domestic issues that had been the focus throughout the election year (especially health, education, and taxes) and the international issues that assumed centre stage just before the election was called (refugees and asylum seekers, terrorism, and defence and national security). Using an original content analysis of TV coverage and the 2001 Australian election survey, interaction effects models yield significantly different patterns of reliance on international and domestic for groups of voters. These effects are distinguished by the timing of individuals’ vote choice, and the level of their existing political interest and information. Moderately interested voters, who largely decided their vote choice about the time the election was called, were the most likely to cite international issues as the key to their vote choice. Voters with lower levels of political interest, deciding just before or on election day, were significantly more reliant on domestic issues. These patterns represent a variant on Zaller’s (1989) model of campaign information flow, and suggest a single, high-intensity campaign—especially in Australia’s compulsory voting system, which forces the participation of the country’s least interested and informed individuals—can sustain within it two distinct issue agendas which voters with different cognitive skills and responsiveness to TV cues differentially utilize to inform their vote choice.
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