Understanding the Dependence Structure Between the Futures and Spot Prices of Wheat in Egypt

The aim of this article is to check the dependence structure for the futures-spot prices link of Egyptian wheat. Co-movements between prices are assessed by a GJR-GARCH model and semi-parametric copula estimation. Results suggest a positive futures-spot prices link, which becomes stronger the closer the markets are. Evidence of asymmetric behavior of the prices at times of extreme market situations is found. As a result, increases in wheat futures prices are expected to be passed to the Egyptian spot market, while the prices decline is not passed. This implies that the Egyptian wheat market cannot protect consumers against extreme international wheat price increases.