宏观审慎政策有效性的实证评估

Frederick Anning
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摘要

在2007-2008年危机之后,宏观审慎政策问题取得了长足进展;政策制定者和监管机构现在一直在不知疲倦地工作,以确保在最近的将来不会出现这样的危机。正是鉴于这一点,我们正试图对监管机构和政策制定者所采用的宏观审慎政策的影响进行实证评估。不可否认的是,由于统计数据水平较低,以及金融和经济系统中使用的宏观经济模型没有考虑到各种相互关联的经济系统,因此在经验上实现一致的结果有些困难。监管机构面临着对宏观审慎政策进行经济和金融实证评估的挑战,因为结果可能相当模糊。因此,在评估结果时采用了许多方法,其中一些方法不仅限于评估宏观压力测试、反事实分析、基于微数据的分析、回归分析,仅举几例。研究已经认识到,大多数监管机构和/或政策制定者通常采用面板数据方法作为其计量经济模型。一个根本问题是,小组数据没有看到有限统计数据的问题,而是侧重于宏观审慎政策工具的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Empirical Assessment of the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies
The issues regarding macroprudential policy have taken great stride in aftermath of the 2007-2008 crisis; policymakers, as well as regulators, have now been working tirelessly to ensure that there will no such crisis in the nearest future. It is in view of this that we are trying to assess empirically the impact of macroprudential policies employed by regulators and policymakers. It is undeniable that it is somewhat difficult in realizing consistent results empirically due to the low level of statistical data as well as the fact that macroeconomic models employed in financial and economic systems do not take into accounts various interconnected economic systems. Regulators are faced with the challenge of empirical assessment of macroprudential policy both economic and financially since results could quite vague. Because of this, numerous methodologies have been employed in assessing the results, some of the employed methods are not limited to assessing macro stress tests, counterfactual analysis, microdata-based analysis, regression analysis just to mention but few. Research has realized that most regulators and or policymakers normally employ the panel data method as their econometric model. One fundamental issue is the panel data does not see the problem regarding limited statistical data but rather focuses on the impact of macroprudential policy tools.
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