Community-Level Incarceration Rates and the Quality of Local Education Systems in North Carolina

Incarcerationis an important area of study in the United States, which incarcerates morepeople than any other country. Indirect evidence suggests that community levelincarceration rates are related to local school systems. Using a sample of2,145 North Carolina census tracts, we estimate a structural equation model oftract level incarceration rates to address two sets of research questions. First,are elementary school test scoresand student-teacher ratios directly related to local incarceration rates? Second,are elementary school test scores and student-teacher ratios indirectly relatedto local incarceration rates, mediated through other local factors? We find that both have a direct effect onincarceration rates, and that test scores have an indirect effect onincarceration through three of the tested mediating factors, which areemployment outcomes, poverty, and family structure. Our results suggest that tobetter understand patterns of community level incarceration rates,understanding local school systems’ role is crucial.