模糊逻辑在爪哇海上天气预报中的应用

A. S. Aisjah, S. Arifin
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引用次数: 20

摘要

模糊逻辑在决策、控制系统和预测等各个领域都有广泛的应用。模糊逻辑是一种可以将复杂的情况用人类容易理解的语言表达成简单形式的逻辑。同样,要把天气的性质表现得通俗易懂,这也是基于气象资料进行天气预报的结果。目前用于天气预报的统计方法有自回归(AR)、综合移动平均(ARIMA)等,并对这些传统方法的不足进行了分析。即需要的历史数据不小,预测精度低,导致条件复杂。本文介绍了基于模糊逻辑的海上天气预报策略。案例研究在爪哇海进行,巡航路线泗水-班加马辛。结果表明,对爪哇海的预报精度为86.64%,预报精度在今后24小时内有所下降。预测者的能力展示了在爪哇海的水域检测异常高海浪的能力
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Maritime weather prediction using fuzzy logic in java sea
Fuzzy logic has mostly been used in different kind of field either in taking decision, or control system and forecasting. Fuzzy logic is one that can represent a complex situation into a simple form in a language that is easily caught by humans. Similarly, to represent the nature of weather easily understood by ordinary people, this is the result of weather forecasting based on meteorological data. Some of the statistical methods used for weather forecasting are Auto Regressive (AR), Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and found some shortcomings of these traditional method. That is the need for historical data is not small, low-prediction accuracy results in a complex condition. This paper describes the strategy in weather forecasting based on fuzzy logic for maritime weather. Case studies conducted in the Java Sea, cruise lines Surabaya- Banjarmasin. The results showed that the level of accuracy prediction for 86.64% of the Java Sea, and prediction accuracy decreased for the next 24 hours ahead. Predictors of ability to demonstrate the ability to detect anomalous high sea waves in the waters of the Java Sea
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