跑道构型选择过程的最大似然离散选择模型估计

V. Ramanujam, H. Balakrishnan
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引用次数: 33

摘要

跑道配置是机场跑道的子集,用于任何时间的到达和离开。许多因素,包括天气(风和能见度),预期到达和离开的需求,环境方面的考虑,如减少噪音的程序,以及与邻近机场的流量协调,都决定着跑道配置的选择。本文开发了一个统计模型,利用经验观察来表征这一过程。特别是,我们展示了跑道配置过程的最大似然离散选择模型如何使用机场的总流量计数和其他存档数据来估计,这些数据间隔超过15分钟。我们的研究表明,估计的离散选择模型不仅识别了决策中各种因素的影响,而且比基于不同配置发生频率的基线模型提供了更好的跑道配置变化预测。该方法用纽瓦克(EWR)和拉瓜迪亚(LGA)机场的数据进行了说明。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of maximum-likelihood discrete-choice models of the runway configuration selection process
The runway configuration is the subset of the runways at an airport that are used for arrivals and departures at any time. Many factors, including weather (wind and visibility), expected arrival and departure demand, environmental considerations such as noise abatement procedures, and coordination of flows with neighboring airports, govern the choice of runway configuration. This paper develops a statistical model to characterize this process using empirical observations. In particular, we demonstrate how a maximum-likelihood discrete-choice model of the runway configuration process can be estimated using aggregate traffic count and other archived data at an airport, that are available over 15 minute intervals. We show that the estimated discrete-choice model not only identifies the influence of various factors in decision-making, but also provides significantly better predictions of runway configuration changes than a baseline model based on the frequency of occurrence of different configurations. The approach is illustrated using data from Newark (EWR) and LaGuardia (LGA) airports.
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