欧洲货币联盟国家的债务减免:恢复欧洲力量和稳定欧元的机会-讨论文件

Wolfgang Eibner
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在美国房地产和金融危机之后,政府在救助银行和为各种刺激计划融资方面的支出,导致欧洲货币联盟(EMU)成员国本已很高的公共债务水平急剧上升。希腊、意大利、比利时、法国甚至德国等国尤其依赖极低或至少较低的利率来稳定其金融状况。因此,欧洲央行实行了近10年的低利率政策的核心原因是,为欧洲货币联盟的高负债国家提供大幅降低利息负担的机会,从而有利于解决债务问题:为许多必要的改革提供时间,以促进经济发展。但在过去的10年里,这些都没有成功。相反,欧元区国家的预算状况正在恶化,经济发展的差距正在扩大而不是缩小,从而危及欧元的稳定,从而危及单一货币的未来。从希腊到德国,几乎所有国家的所有部门都迫切需要持续更高的净投资:相反,欧洲货币联盟国家的净投资明显在减少,欧洲面临着不仅被美国和中国这两个经济大国甩在后面的危险。这概括了一个既紧迫又热门的问题:如何恢复欧洲的经济实力。关键在于,我们如何能够快速、可持续地解决欧洲国家严重的债务问题。讨论文件给出的答案是一种债务减免,通过转换欧洲央行持有的相关数量的政府债券来实施。转换意味着将还款期限延长至80-100年,并将利率设定得很低。当然,一项具有约束力的协议是不可避免的,即净新增债务只能达到某一时期GDP增长的最大值。只有承诺进行更精确的高净投资的国家才能参与债务转换,特别是在税收效率方面进行改革,对中央政府的某些税收分别设定下限和上限,并在狭窄的范围内进行协调。合理减少和大幅度放松官僚主义,杜绝影子经济和腐败现象。通过债务转换(这只有在一个强大的超国家框架内才有可能实现)恢复金融实力,欧洲货币联盟成员国的优势将再次显现,欧盟将再次成为自由和繁荣的光辉榜样,正如罗伯特·舒曼(Robert Schuman)在1999年构想的那样。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Debt Relief for the EMU Countries: A Chance to Restore Europe’s Power and to Stabilize the Euro – A Discussion Paper
Government spending on bailing out banks and financing a variety of stimulus packages following the US real estate and financial crisis led to a sharp increase in the already very high level of public debt also of the member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Countries such as Greece, Italy, Belgium, France and even Germany in particular depend on very low or at least low interest rates to stabilize their financial situation. Thus, the central reason for the European Central Bank's low interest rate policy, which has been in place for almost 10 years, is to provide the highly indebted countries of the EMU with a significant reduction in the interest burden in favor of a solution to the debt problem: giving time for a lot of necessary reforms to increase economic development. But none of this has succeeded in the last 10 years. Instead, the budgetary situation in the euro countries is getting worse, the disparities in economic development are increasing rather than diminishing, thereby endangering the stability of the euro and thus the future of the single currency. There is an urgent need for sustained higher net investments in nearly all sectors of all countries from Greece to Germany: instead, net investment in the countries of the EMU is clearly decreasing and Europe is in danger of being left behind not only by the two economic powers USA and China. This outlines a problem that is as pressing as it is topical: the question of how to restore Europes’ economic power. The key lies in the question of how can we be able to solve the crippling debt problem of European countries quickly and sustainably. The answer given by the discussion paper is a kind of debt relief, implemented as a conversion of a relevant amount of the government bonds held by the ECB. Conversion means extending the repayment to 80-100 years and the interest rate to be set very low. Of course a binding agreement is inevitable that net new debt can only be taken up to the maximum value of the GDP growth of a certain period. Only countries can participate in the debt conversion which commit themselves to making higher net investments to be specified more precisely, to carry out reforms especially concerning the efficiency of taxation, respectively set lower and upper limits for some taxes of the central government, and harmonize them within narrow ranges. Also it is necessary to reasonably reduce and largely deregulate bureaucracy and put an end to shadow economy and corruption. By regaining financial strength as a result of a debt conversion, which is only possible within a strong supranational framework, the advantages of membership in the European Monetary Union will once again become evident, and the European Union can again become a shining example of freedom and prosperity, the way that Robert Schuman did formulate as a vision in.
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