经济增长的终结?人口减少的意外后果

C. I. Jones
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引用次数: 71

摘要

在许多模式中,经济增长是由人们发现新想法推动的。这些模型通常假设人口不变或不断增长。然而,在今天的高收入国家,生育率已经低于其更替率:妇女平均生育不到两个孩子。从长远来看,全球人口很有可能会下降而不是稳定下来。在标准模型中,这具有深刻的含义:人口的生活水平停滞不前,而不是持续的指数增长。而且,如果在执行最优策略时存在延迟,即使是最优分配也可能陷入这种结果。(j12, j11, j13, o41)
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy. (JEL I12, J11, J13, O41)
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