沙特阿拉伯和以色列:巴勒斯坦背景

Косач Григорий
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文在利雅得解决巴勒斯坦问题的方法的背景下审查了与沙特阿拉伯对以色列政策变化有关的问题。发件人强调指出,近年来沙特-以色列相互作用演变过程中出现的积极动态是由沙特内部的社会经济和政治转变所决定的,包括关于以色列的公众舆论的变化,以及中东区域局势发展的重大转变,特别是阿拉伯联合酋长国(以及巴林)宣布的朝着与以色列达成解决办法的转变。与此同时,在目前沙特国内政治局势的背景下,出现了一种支持与以色列关系正常化的倾向,这也标志着在支持王储的倡议方面出现了公开的分界。如果他的支持者在其他方面表现为正常化的支持者,那么反对者则认为与犹太国家的接触是“对阿拉伯国家利益的背叛”。然而,作者指出,目前沙特与以色列的和解在很大程度上是由对抗伊朗的共同利益决定的,但他认为,在“两国”原则基础上尚未解决的巴勒斯坦问题上,沙特继续不愿与犹太国家实现关系正常化的最重要原因。同时,作者认为,这一原则本身是沙特外交政策的工具,利雅得借此寻求排除以色列在未来对抗后的中东霸权的可能性。这尤其意味着,只有在以色列的区域政策作出调整,使其不对沙特的利益构成威胁的情况下,实现相互理解才会成为现实。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Saudi Arabia and Israel: the Palestinian Context
The article examines the issues related to the change in the Saudi Arabia’s policy towards Israel in the context of Riyadh’s approaches to solving the Palestinian problem. The author emphasizes that the positive dynamics taking place in the evolution of Saudi-Israeli interaction in recent years is determined by the intra-Saudi socio-economic and political transformation, including changes in public opinion regarding Israel, as well as significant shifts in the development of the Middle East regional situation, inter alia those proclaimed by the United Arab Emirates (as well as Bahrain) heading towards a settlement with Israel. At the same time, the emergence of a tendency to support the course towards normalizing relations with Israel in the context of the current Saudi internal political situation also marked a public demarcation in relation to initiatives to support the Crown Prince. If his supporters act, among other things, as supporters of normalization, then opponents see contacts with the Jewish state as “a betrayal of Arab national interests”. Noting that the current Saudi-Israeli rapprochement is largely determined by a joint interest in confronting Iran, the author, nevertheless, sees the most important reason for the continuing Saudi unwillingness to normalize relations with the Jewish state in the unresolved Palestinian problem on the basis of the “two states” principle. At the same time, the author believes that this principle itself is an instrument of Saudi foreign policy, thanks to which Riyadh seeks to exclude the possibility of Israeli hegemony in the future post-confrontational Middle East. This means, in particular, that the achievement of mutual understanding will become a reality only if the Israeli regional policy is adjusted so as not to pose a threat to Saudi interests.
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