Long-Term Changes in Conditions for the Development of Conventional Thermal and Non-Carbon Energy Technologies in the Power System of the Far East

The article examines the results of a study of the competitiveness of new gas, coal, nuclear, wind and solar power plants for their development in the electric power system of the Far East of Russia in modern conditions and until 2030. Taking into account the forecasts of capital costs and fuel prices by the criteria of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), the changes in the economic conditions for the emergence of non-carbon power plants in the power system of the Far East are estimated. It is pointed that cheapening of these technologies should be supported by a reduction of the cost of capital to improve economic opportunities for their development in competition with the thermal generation in terms of LCOE analysis. In addition to this, supplemental costs related with the integration of renewable generation sources into power system are also investigated as a negative factor for their expansion. Competitive positions of power plants in the electric power system of the Far East as sources of electric power export to the Asia-Pacific countries were also studied using the actual cost and performance data as well as the forecasts of local fuel prices in China and Japan.