尼日利亚马库尔迪地区降雨强度、持续时间和频率方程的推导

K. Bolorunduro, O. Olayanju, I. A. Oke
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引用次数: 0

摘要

水文、环境和水力应用的变化经常需要关于降雨强度、持续时间和频率的资料和充分数据。本文提出了尼日利亚马库尔迪的降雨强度-持续时间-频率方程。马库尔迪的降雨强度被用来建立大约13个不同方程的经验推导常数。采用方差分析(ANOVA)、总误差分析(total error)、模型选择准则(MSC)、决定系数(CD)、相关系数(R)和赤池信息准则(Akaike Information criterion, AIC)对这些方程进行统计评价,主要目的是选择最佳的选址方程。研究表明,降雨强度可以仅以降雨时间的数量、频率或降雨持续时间和回归时间来表示,并带有经验推导的常数。统计评价表明,Makurdi方程的相关系数分别在0.896 ~ 0.894之间。与文献中的模式15相比,模式12是最准确的降水预测模式。该模型对马库尔迪的相关系数最高。结果表明,降水持续时间、回归时间和经验导出常数的函数最优,说明基于MSC、CD、AIC和R的值最能解释降雨的严重程度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Derivation of the Rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency Equations for Makurdi, Nigeria
Information and adequate data on intensity–duration–frequency of rainfall are regularly required for a variation of hydrologic, environmental and hydraulic applications. This paper presents rainfall intensity-duration-frequency equations for Makurdi, Nigeria. Rainfall intensities from Makurdi were used to establish empirically derived constants for about thirteen different equations. These equations were evaluated statistically using analysis of variance (ANOVA), total error, model of' selection criterion (MSC), Coefficient of Determination (CD), Correlation coefficient (R) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), with the main objective of selecting the best equation for the location. The study revealed that rainfall intensity can be expressed in terms of either the amount of rainfall time only, frequency or both duration of the rain and time of return with empirically derived constants. Statistical evaluation revealed that the correlation coefficients of equations for Makurdi were between 0.896 and 0.894, respectively. Model 12 was discovered to be most accurate model for prediction of rainfall amount as against model 15 presented in literature. The model had the highest correlation coefficient for Makurdi. According to findings, functions of the duration of rainfall, return time, and empirically derived constants are the best functions, which explains the severity of the rain the best based on the values of MSC, CD, AIC and R.
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