进行预见性研究:组织方面

L. Deineko, E. Sheludko
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引用次数: 1

摘要

经济发展的不确定性增加了人们对未来研究的兴趣及其在确定科学和技术、社会经济、区域发展等优先领域方面的作用。与此相关的是预见实践的迅速传播,它是一种积极了解未来并创建中长期愿景的过程,以巩固所有利益相关者在做出相关决策时的努力。预见的范围也在扩大,这已经成为国际合作的主题。为欧盟各国在进行战略预测研究时平衡各国的预测方法,提出了方法学建议。在组织远见进程方面,乌克兰远远落后于欧洲的做法,在有限的时期内仅限于个人倡议。该国尚未发展出全面前瞻性研究所需的组织方法。首先,对预测过程的组织和方法支持的分析,其基本方面是在研究的预测阶段形成的。因此,本研究的主题是强调前瞻性研究的组织方面。本出版物的目的是详细研究和分析预见性研究的组织,包括预见性阶段的信息、交流和方法组成部分的形成,以及提高国家预见性作为国家长期发展工具的有效性的措施建议。基于文献分析,采用系统的、比较历史的、结构的、跨学科的方法,概括了国外组织前瞻研究的经验,证实了改进前瞻研究的信息和监管框架的权宜之计,具体的前瞻研究的应用范围和标准由该过程的利益相关者确定。以及方法学方法的结合,形成了研究方法的发现。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Conducting pre-foresight research: organizational aspect
The growing uncertainty of economic development increases the interest in future research and its role in determining the priority areas of scientific and technological, socio-economic, regional development. Related to this is the rapid spread of the foresight practice as a process of actively learning about the future and creating a medium- and long-term vision to consolidate the efforts of all stakeholders in making relevant decisions. The scope of foresight, which is already becoming the subject of international cooperation, is also expanding. Methodological recommendations have been adopted for the EU countries to balance the countries’ foresight methods when conducting strategic forecast research. Ukraine lags far behind European practices in organising the foresight process, limiting itself to individual initiatives for limited periods. The country has not yet developed the organisational methods required for full-fledged foresight research. Above all, the analysis of organisational and methodological support of the foresight process, the basic aspects of which are formed at the pre-foresight stage of the study. Therefore, the subject of the study was to highlight the organisational aspect of pre-foresight research. The purpose of this publication is a detailed study and analysis of the organisation of pre-foresight research in terms of the formation of informational, communicative, and methodological components of the pre-foresight stage, as well as recommendations for measures to improve the effectiveness of national foresight as a tool for long-term development in the country. Based on bibliographic analysis using systematic, comparative-historical, structural, interdisciplinary approaches, the foreign experience of organising pre-foresight research was generalised, the expediency of improving the information and regulatory framework for foresight research was substantiated, the scope of application of foresight-specific research and criteria were determined by stakeholders of the process, as well as methodological approaches to the formation of a combination of research methods were discovered.
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