对外直接投资、国际贸易与国内就业:来自中国的证据

Qi-fu Zhang
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摘要

国际分工是提高效率的有效途径,也是要素过剩的根源。本文基于Myint-Smith理论,分析了对外直接投资和国际贸易对国内就业的影响。一方面,它可以通过扩大产出规模直接促进国内就业增长;另一方面,通过提高生产效率和促进产业升级,可以促进国内消费增长和升级,间接促进就业增长。实证检验选择2008 - 2017年中国省级面板数据检验理论。静态分析表明,省际OFDI流量、OFDI存量、进出口、进出口等核心变量的重复检验结果对省际就业增长具有显著的正向影响。动态分析表明,核心变量的系数是正向的促进效应。稳健性检验是基于城乡、行业和地区之间的差异。城镇具有显著的促进效应,村庄具有显著的替代效应。房地产、建筑和信息技术行业的促进作用最强,且呈现出明显的东、西、中国的弱化趋势。中国对外直接投资和国际贸易对就业的积极影响,不仅批判了“对外直接投资和进口不能促进就业”的谬论,而且完善了VFS理论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
OFDI, international trade and domestic employment: evidence from China
International division of labor is not only an effective way to improve efficiency, but also the root of excess factors. Based on Myint-Smith theory, this paper analyses the impact of OFDI and international trade on domestic employment. On the one hand, it can directly promote domestic employment growth by expanding output scale; on the other hand, it can promote domestic consumption growth and upgrading by improving production efficiency and promoting industrial upgrading, and indirectly promote employment growth. Empirical test chooses China's provincial panel data test theory from 2008 to 2017. Static analysis shows that the repeated test results of core variables such as inter-provincial OFDI flow, OFDI stock, import, export, import and export show a significant positive effect on inter-provincial employment growth. Dynamic analysis shows that the coefficients of core variables are positive promotion effects. The robustness test is based on the differences between urban and rural areas, industries and regions. Towns have significant promotion effect while villages have significant substitution effect. Real estate, construction and information technology industries have the strongest promotion effect, and show a significant promotion effect of the weakening trend of East, West and China. The positive effect of China's OFDI and international trade on employment not only criticizes the fallacy that "OFDI and import cannot promote employment", but also perfects VFS theory.
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