衡量金融危机期间能源与股市之间的传染:相关性中的不对称动态

Nadhem Selmi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文对Cappiello等人(2006)开发的非对称动态条件相关(ADCC)模型进行了研究。A-DCC模型的性能优于非对称模型。方法设计是一个适当的多元向量和自回归的指数GARCH (M-VAR-EGARCH)过程,研究波动性的本质和跨市场的回报溢出机制。本文考察了2004年1月2日至2013年7月5日美国和欧元区股市与油价之间的动态联系。研究结果支持希腊债务危机期间存在传染效应,但次贷危机不存在传染效应。石油价格与金融市场股票收益率的相关性揭示了石油市场之间一定程度的相互依存关系,这种相互依存关系在债务危机期间较低。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MEASURING CONTAGION BETWEEN ENERGY AND STOCK MARKET DURING FINANCIAL CRISIS: ASYMMETRIC DYNAMICS IN THE CORRELATIONS
This paper deals with the study of the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006). The A-DCC models carry out better than the non-asymmetric ones. The methodological design is an appropriate multivariate vector and autoregressive exponential GARCH (M-VAR-EGARCH) process which investigate the nature of the volatility and return spillover mechanism across markets. This article examines the dynamic linkages between the stock market and oil price in the US and the Euro-Zone from January 2, 2004 to July 5, 2013. The findings support the existence of a contagion effect during the Greek debt crisis but not the subprime crisis. The correlations between oil prices and stock return of the financial market reveal a certain degree of interdependence among oil market that is lower during the debt crisis.
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