金融危机前后亚洲经济体的购买力平价是否成立?时间序列模型的证据

S. Raza, S. Munir, Kaifi Azam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在汇率决定模型中,购买力平价(PPP)作为基础理论,为各国之间的汇率决定提供了依据。本研究的主要目的是调查亚洲经济体和发达经济体之间是否存在长期购买力平价。这将有助于了解这些国家的长期汇率决定,并有助于制定有效的货币政策。本研究分别检验了亚洲经济体(中国、日本、新加坡)与英国和美国之间的长期PPP关系。通过时间序列分析分别观察亚洲经济体与英国和美国经济体之间的购买力平价是否成立是很重要的。采用约翰森协整检验分别在全球金融危机前后的全样本和子样本上检验了这些国家的相对购买力平价。在全样本和子样本中,协整结果表明,购买力平价分别适用于英国和美国的亚洲经济体(中国、日本和新加坡)。本研究发现了重要的证据,可以接受购买力平价持有,这意味着亚洲经济体的国内价格受到美国和英国价格的影响,并解释了其国内价格和通货膨胀的显著差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Between Asian Economies Before and After the Financial Crisis? Evidence from the Time-Series Model
In exchange rate determination models, the purchasing power parity (PPP) acts as a fundamental theory, which provides the basis for exchange rate determination across countries respectively. The main objective of this study is to investigate if there exists long-run purchasing power parity in the long run between the Asian economies and developed economies. This will help to understand the long-run exchange rate determination in these countries and helps to make effective monetary policies. This study tests the long-run PPP relationships between Asian economies (China, Japan, Singapore) with the UK and the US respectively. It is important to observe whether PPP holds between Asian economies and the economies of the UK and US by using time-series analysis respectively. Johansen Cointegration test is used to examine the relative PPP among these countries on full sample and sub-samples before and after the global financial crisis respectively. In full sample and subsamples, the Cointegration results show that PPP holds Asian economies (China, Japan, and Singapore) with the UK and the US respectively. This study finds significant evidence to accept that PPP holds which implies that the domestic prices of Asian economies are influenced by the US and UK prices and it explains a significant amount of variation in their domestic prices and inflation.
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