2014年至2022年匈牙利投票行为的地域调整

T. Kovalcsik, Mátyás Bódi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

选举地理学的主要目的之一是研究投票行为的空间和社会经济关系。基于此,在20世纪60年代发达民主国家中发现了强烈的社会分裂,这在很大程度上决定了投票行为。政权更迭后,匈牙利选举地理学家也利用这些分裂来描述投票行为的空间性。然而,据报道,随着传统左派的市场转向和民粹主义右翼的加强,这些分歧的重要性有所下降,新的联盟已经被创造出来。本研究考察了匈牙利投票行为的空间性及其转化应用定量方法到最近三次议会选举。根据我们的研究结果,自移民危机(2015年)以来,随着维克多Orbán(他是2010年以来执政的青民盟的领导人)民粹主义言论的变化,他除了能够保留其政党重要的农村选民基础外,还更多地吸引了经济危机地区(全球化的输家)的弱势群体,而其在经济活跃、受教育程度高和高收入地区的支持率相对下降。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Geographical Realignment of the Hungarian Voting Behaviour Between 2014 and 2022
One of the main aims of electoral geography is to examine the spatial and socio-economic relationships of voting behaviour. Based on this, strong social cleavages were identified in the developed democracies in the 1960s, which strongly determined voting behaviour. After the regime change, these cleavages were also utilized by Hungarian electoral geographers to describe the spatiality of voting behaviour. However, a decrease in the importance of these cleavages has been reported, with the market turn of the traditional left and the strengthening of the populist right, new alignments have been created. The present study examines the spatiality of Hungarian voting behaviour and its transformation applying quantitative methods to the last three parliamentary elections. Based on our results, with the populist rhetorical change of Viktor Orbán (who is the leader of Fidesz, the governmental party since 2010) that has occurred since the migration crisis (2015), he appeals much more to disadvantaged people in the economic crisis regions (the losers of globalization), in addition to being able to retain his party’s significant rural voter base, while its support is relatively decreasing in the economically active, educated, and high-income regions.
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