Research on Carbon Emissions in End-Use Energy Consumption Sector Based on LEAP Model-Fujian Province as an example

Implementing energy conservation strategies is an important means to help achieve the dual carbon goal. Conducting energy conservation potential assessments and the achievability of emission reduction targets in the light of the characteristics of the new phase is important for setting reasonable energy conservation and emission reduction targets and safeguards. Based on the 2015–2020 energy consumption and other statistical data of Fujian Province, this paper uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model as a research tool to simulate the future end-use energy consumption demand and CO2 emission trends in Fujian Province under different development scenarios by setting up a base scenario and an energy saving scenario, and to analyse the direction and path of low-carbon urban development. The results show that under the baseline scenario, energy demand and carbon emissions in Fujian Province will continue to grow; under the condition of strengthening energy saving and emission reduction measures in Fujian Province, energy demand and carbon emissions in Fujian Province can grow slowly or even decline in the future.