震後建築物倒塌引起道路阻斷之評估模式與案例分析

由災害案例顯示，在大規模地震下常會造成地表破壞、建物倒塌、維生管線毀壞、與道路阻斷狀況，例如1994年洛杉磯北嶺ML6.6地震、1995年日本阪神ML7.2地震、及1999年台灣921集集ML7.3地震，皆造成嚴重的建築物倒塌外，也間接引起周邊道路阻斷的情況，不僅衝擊都市機能運作外，亦導致鏈鎖性衝擊影響，災害後果顯示，地方政府需考量間接災難衝擊影響，例如震後建物倒塌引起的道路阻斷，與建物火災事件將加劇衝擊之後果，傷亡與經濟損失將高將於地震直接損失，有鑑於此，本研究藉災害衝擊鏈觀點，發展震後建物倒塌引致的道路阻斷評估模式，並利用地震情境模擬分析(中洲構造ML6.9)，有效整合震後建物起火數推估模式，發展出一套建物倒塌地震情境模擬分析程序。研究結果顯示，台南市示範區內強震區建物嚴重損壞，建物結構殘礫落下引起道路嚴重阻斷情況，尤其發生在台南市中西區老舊建物的鄰近道路，與醫療院所外部救援道路，此外震後造成建物倒塌發生三處火災事件，火災救援與傷患運輸等可能受到影響，對災害管理，強化都市防災機能，檢討防救災道路及防救災公共設施，防災應變能力，是刻不容緩之事，本研究結果可具體掌握震後道路系統阻斷情況，可協助防救災設施的情資研判，做出合理且有效決策，及面對災害防救避難規劃之參考。  Moderate-to-large earthquakes cause problems such as severe damage to buildings, critical infrastructure failure, and road blockages. For example, during the 1994 Northridge earthquake (ML6.6), 1995 Kobe earthquake (ML7.2), and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (ML7.3), strong ground motion caused the collapse of buildings and indirectly resulted in road blockages, which not only negatively affected the operation of urban functions but also triggered failures in related and connected systems, effectively amounting to a disaster cascade. Road networks are crucial in an emergency, such as the aftermath of a strong earthquake, at which time rescued people must be immediately transported to rescue staging sites, injured people must be taken to hospitals, assistance must be transported to the scene, and repair work must be conducted on damaged infrastructure. With rapid urbanization, Taiwan is becoming increasingly dependent on its transportation infrastructure. Governments must consider the disaster impact chain to reduce the harmful consequences of disasters. For instance, post-earthquake casualties and the socioeconomic impacts of fire events generally have a greater negative impact than do the losses directly caused by earthquakes. The current study developed a disaster impact chain triggered by the collapse of buildings after an earthquake. We integrated the road blocking mode and post-earthquake fire mode and developed a set of procedures and methods. The results of this research can be used as a basis for determining the damage to road systems after earthquakes, guiding the operation of disaster prevention and relief facilities, informing reasonable and effective decision-making during disasters, and serving as a reference for the government facility inspection and priority restoration work.