PROSES BERPIKIR PROBABILISTIK PESERTA DIDIK DALAM MENYELESAIKAN PERMASALAHAN PELUANG

the purpose of this study is to describe the probabilistic thinking process of students in solving opportunity problems based on the Jones framework. The method used in this research is the method of exploration and interviews. The source of the data used is located at SMK YPC Tasikmalaya, the actors in this study are students of class XI RPL, and the activities carried out are students solving problem descriptions of probability problems. The data analysis technique used is data analysis technique according to Miles and Huberman which consists of data reduction, data display and verification. The result of this research is that there are four subjects which are analyzed more deeply with consideration of fluency in conveying information. The four subjects, probabilistic thinking processes in solving opportunity problems have different levels, starting from the subjective level where students are only able to predict the most likely or least likely events based on subjective assessments, transitional levels students are able to predict and can distinguish events. most/likely to occur based on quantitative assessments, informal quantitative level learners are able to predict the most likely/unlikely events to occur based on quantitative assessments and can use numbers informally to compare probabilities, numeric levels can predict the most/likely events for an experiment one stage and can assign a numerical probability to an event by using the probability formula.