基于机器学习的气象因素与短期负荷预测的相关性分析

Xu Fei, Wu ZhiGang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

电力系统负荷受各种外部因素的影响,使得短期负荷具有不确定性和随机性的特点。影响电力系统负荷预测的因素很多,其中天气条件对负荷预测的影响最为显著。本文在现有文献的基础上,提出了一种分析单个气象因素与系统负荷相关性的方法,进而综合考虑各气象因素对系统负荷的影响。考虑天气、降雨、湿度等气象因素。BP算法具有很强的非线性拟合能力,理论上可以拟合任何复杂的非线性映射关系。本文利用Python实现了考虑多种气象因素的BP算法,对南网某地区10月份的负荷进行了预测。预测结果表明,与传统输入所有气象因子作为BP模型,且不分析气象因子与系统分析之间的相关性相比,本文处理方法提高了负荷预测的准确性,加快了算法的速度。降低了收敛速度和学习时间,大大提高了效率,对负荷预测在实际电网中的应用具有一定的指导作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of correlation between meteorological factors and short-term load forecasting based on machine learning
The power system load is affected by various external factors, making the short-term load have the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness. There are many factors affecting power system load forecasting, and weather conditions have the most significant impact on load forecasting. Based on the existing literature, this paper proposes a method to analyze the correlation between single meteorological factors and system load, and then comprehensively consider the impact of all meteorological factors on system load. Considering weather, rainfall, humidity and other meteorological factors. The BP algorithm has a very strong nonlinear fitting ability and can theoretically fit any complex nonlinear mapping relationship. This paper uses Python to implement the BP algorithm considering multiple meteorological factors, and predicts the load of October in a certain area of South Network. The prediction results show that compared with the traditional input of all meteorological factors as BP model, and the correlation between meteorological factors and system analysis is not analyzed, the processing method of this paper improves the accuracy of load forecasting and accelerates the algorithm. The convergence speed and learning time are reduced, which greatly improves the efficiency and has a certain guiding effect on the application of load forecasting in the actual power grid.
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