{"title":"政府借贷成本对财政纪律的影响","authors":"Oļegs Tkačevs, Kārlis Vilerts","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12207","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>This paper studies the impact of government borrowing costs on fiscal discipline against the background of unprecedentedly low interest rates in advanced economies brought about by ultra-expansionary monetary policies of recent years. Applying the panel data econometric approach for a sample of OECD and 11 early euro area countries over the period 1985–2015, the study suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of government borrowing costs on cyclically adjusted primary balances, indicating that a decrease in borrowing costs leads to a deterioration of fiscal policy stance. The findings herein also suggest that this effect in the euro area seems to be driven by a group of its peripheral rather than core countries and appears to work through the expenditure (more specifically, current expenditure) channel. From the economic policy perspective, these findings imply that monetary policy measures resulting in ultra-low interest rates may cause negative side effects for fiscal discipline.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"72 3","pages":"446-471"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2019-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12207","citationCount":"15","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Impact of Government Borrowing Costs on Fiscal Discipline\",\"authors\":\"Oļegs Tkačevs, Kārlis Vilerts\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/kykl.12207\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n <p>This paper studies the impact of government borrowing costs on fiscal discipline against the background of unprecedentedly low interest rates in advanced economies brought about by ultra-expansionary monetary policies of recent years. Applying the panel data econometric approach for a sample of OECD and 11 early euro area countries over the period 1985–2015, the study suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of government borrowing costs on cyclically adjusted primary balances, indicating that a decrease in borrowing costs leads to a deterioration of fiscal policy stance. The findings herein also suggest that this effect in the euro area seems to be driven by a group of its peripheral rather than core countries and appears to work through the expenditure (more specifically, current expenditure) channel. From the economic policy perspective, these findings imply that monetary policy measures resulting in ultra-low interest rates may cause negative side effects for fiscal discipline.</p>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47739,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Kyklos\",\"volume\":\"72 3\",\"pages\":\"446-471\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-03-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12207\",\"citationCount\":\"15\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Kyklos\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/kykl.12207\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Kyklos","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/kykl.12207","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Impact of Government Borrowing Costs on Fiscal Discipline
This paper studies the impact of government borrowing costs on fiscal discipline against the background of unprecedentedly low interest rates in advanced economies brought about by ultra-expansionary monetary policies of recent years. Applying the panel data econometric approach for a sample of OECD and 11 early euro area countries over the period 1985–2015, the study suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of government borrowing costs on cyclically adjusted primary balances, indicating that a decrease in borrowing costs leads to a deterioration of fiscal policy stance. The findings herein also suggest that this effect in the euro area seems to be driven by a group of its peripheral rather than core countries and appears to work through the expenditure (more specifically, current expenditure) channel. From the economic policy perspective, these findings imply that monetary policy measures resulting in ultra-low interest rates may cause negative side effects for fiscal discipline.
期刊介绍:
KYKLOS views economics as a social science and as such favours contributions dealing with issues relevant to contemporary society, as well as economic policy applications. Since its inception nearly 60 years ago, KYKLOS has earned a worldwide reputation for publishing a broad range of articles from international scholars on real world issues. KYKLOS encourages unorthodox, original approaches to topical economic and social issues with a multinational application, and promises to give fresh insights into topics of worldwide interest