启蒙与核秩序

Joachim J. Krause
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引用次数: 27

摘要

将启蒙的方法正确地应用于核不扩散领域需要作出重大努力,以批判性地评价各种意识形态。自由主义军备控制尽管有许多成功和优点,但多年来已经设计出一整套意识形态原则和态度。其中一些已经转变成可以被称为神话的信仰。自由军备控制学派最突出的意识形态神话是,1968年的《核不扩散条约》(NPT)本质上是一项裁军协议,而不是一项不扩散条约。把谈判描绘成一个有预谋的启蒙努力,世界各国政府聚集在一起,庄严地决定,其中一些国家将被允许在一段时间内拥有一些核武器,而其他国家将立即放弃拥有核武器,这是纯粹的。将这场大谈判限定为核国家与无核国家之间的谈判,同样是错误的。自由军控学派的另一个神话是,为了获得对《不扩散核武器条约》的支持,超级大国在20世纪60年代改变了它们的核武器战略。同样,这一论点也没有得到核战略和理论发展的证实。第三个谬论是,乔治•w•布什(George W. Bush)上台后,美国的核不扩散政策发生了突然转变。美国核不扩散政策的重大变化早在克林顿政府时期就开始了,其中一些变化可以追溯到老布什总统任期。它们都反映了国际环境的变化,是对防扩散战略的必要调整。克林顿政府放弃了一些传统的军备控制途径,并正确地进行了一些必要的变革,因为传统的军备控制手段已不再适用。布什政府延续了这一政策,但采取了更为激进的方式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Enlightenment and Nuclear Order
Applying the method of enlightenment correctly to the area of nuclear non-proliferation would require a major effort to critically evaluate ideologies. Liberal arms control despite its many successes and merits has devised over the years a whole set of ideological tenets and attitudes. Some of them have been transformed into beliefs that could be termed myths. The most prominent ideological myth of the liberal arms control school is the notion that the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty of 1968 (NPT) was in essence a disarmament agreement, not a non-proliferation treaty. To depict the negotiations as a premeditated effort of enlightenment, where the governments of this world came together to solemnly decide that some of them would be allowed to have some nuclear weapons for an interim period while the others would renounce their possession immediately, is pure. It would be equally wrong to qualify the grand bargain as one between the nuclear haves and the nuclear have-nots. Another myth of the liberal arms control school is the notion that - in order to gain support for the NPT - the superpowers had altered their nuclear weapons strategy in the 1960s. Again, this contention is not borne out by the development of nuclear strategies and doctrines. The third myth is the contention that there was an abrupt shift in US non-proliferation policy as George W. Bush came into power. The major changes in US non-proliferation policy had already started during the Clinton administration and some of them can be traced back to the tenure of President George W. H. Bush senior. They all reflected the changed international environment and represented necessary adjustments of the non-proliferation strategy. The Clinton administration left some of the traditional paths of arms control and rightly undertook some changes that were necessary because traditional instruments of arms control were no longer adequate. The Bush administration continued that policy, but in a more radical way.
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