水对胡尔巴诺沃地区气温分布函数双峰性及t年气温变化的影响

P. Pekárová, J. Pekár, P. Miklánek
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来,气温的变化和长期趋势是水文学家感兴趣的,因为它们可以影响全球水文循环和流域水平衡。t年最低日平均气温和最高日平均气温的估计涉及到这些序列的分布函数的选择问题。日气温序列的直方图在世界上许多站点呈现双峰(双峰)形状。双峰分布的分布函数用单一的均值和标准差来描述是不可行的。本研究利用Hurbanovo站的3个温度指标估算了气温的t年值。年最高日平均气温系列Td,max, 2。年平均气温序列Td;和3。年平均日最低气温系列Td,min。比较了1872—2017年仪器周期两个子周期平均气温指数理论分布曲线的变化。一般来说,温度设计值的变化在最低温度的情况下更为明显,例如100年最低日平均气温的值增加了5°C以上。胡尔巴诺沃100年最高日平均气温上升1.88℃。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effect of water on bimodality of air temperature distribution functions and changes in T-year air temperature values in Hurbanovo
Variability and long-term trends in air temperature are in the interest of hydrologists in recent decades as they can affect the global hydrological cycle and water balance in river basins. The estimation of the T-year minimum and maximum mean daily air temperature is associated with the problem of selection of the distribution functions of these series. The histograms of the daily air temperature series manifest the two-peak (bimodal) shape in many stations all over the world. It is not feasible to describe the distribution function of bimodal distribution through single mean value and single standard deviation. In the present study the T-year values of air temperature are estimated for three temperature indexes in station Hurbanovo: 1. series of maximum mean daily air temperature of the year Td,max, 2. series of mean annual air temperature of the year Td; and 3. series of minimum mean daily air temperature of the year Td,min. Change in the theoretic distribution curve of the mean daily air temperature indexes is compared during two subperiods of the instrumental period 1872–2017. Generally, the changes in temperature design values are more marked in case of minimum temperatures, e.g. the value of 100-year minimum mean daily air temperature increased by more than 5°C. The 100-year maximum mean daily air temperature increased by 1.88°C in Hurbanovo.
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