斯洛文尼亚出生时的预期寿命最近有所下降

Aleša Lotrič Dolinar, Jože Sambt
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摘要

几十年来,斯洛文尼亚出生时的预期寿命(0岁)一直在以非常快的速度增长。然而,2015年e0略有下降;2016年,女性的失业率有所回升,但在2017年再次下降。在同一时期,全世界许多发达国家死亡率下降的趋势暂停。现在提供彻底的分析和坚定的结论还为时过早,但我们通过按年龄和死亡原因分解斯洛文尼亚所观察到的人口下降情况,对这个问题有所了解。特别是,使用生命表模型和预期寿命分解技术,我们分析了哪个年龄组的死亡原因对出生时预期寿命下降的影响最大。我们表明,斯洛文尼亚最近出生时预期寿命下降的主要原因是,所有年龄段男性的外部原因以及60岁以上女性和50岁以上男性的肿瘤造成的死亡率较高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Recent decline in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia
For many decades, life expectancy at birth (e0) in Slovenia has been increasing at a very rapid pace. However, in 2015, e0 declined slightly; it recovered in 2016, but fell again in 2017 for women. In the same period, a pause in declining mortality was observed in numerous developed countries worldwide. It is too early to provide a thorough analysis and firm conclusions, but we shed some light on the topic by decomposing the observed decline in Slovenia by age and cause of death. In particular, using a life table model and life expectancy decomposition technique, we analyse what cause of death for what age group contributed the most to this decline in life expectancy at birth. We show that the main reason for the recent drop in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia was higher mortality due to external causes for men of all ages and due to neoplasms for women above 60 years and men above 50 years.
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