乌克兰公共债务及其对主要社会经济指标的影响

S. Stepanenko
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摘要

介绍。解决好国债管理问题是国家经济稳定的关键因素之一。国家的预算能力和本国货币的稳定性在很大程度上取决于债务问题解决的性质。解决这些问题的需要要求找到改进乌克兰公共债务管理和还本付息机制的方法。本文的目的是研究乌克兰的公共债务动态,并模拟其在现代条件下对关键社会经济指标影响的性质。分析了2013-2019年乌克兰国家和国家担保债务的动态和结构。确定了2014-2018年债务总额增长的负动态。2019年,由于外债和担保债务减少,格里夫纳债务总额减少,但以美元计算的债务增加,这威胁到该国的金融稳定。运用基于格兰杰因果检验的软件产品EViews 10,研究了公共债务动态(指数)与社会经济发展指标:GDP增长率、工业生产指数、实际收入指数、就业指数、商品和服务出口指数、商品和服务进口指数之间的因果关系体系。在建立因果关系的基础上,构建了公共债务动态对社会经济发展指标的自回归影响模型,其误差不超过5%。根据构建的模型结果,确定了公共债务对主要社会经济指标的负面影响,并通过社会经济指标弹性指数的负值来证实这一点。建立的模型是公共债务管理的预防性工具,借助这些模型,可以通过监测公共债务动态水平,迅速对社会经济发展的威胁作出反应。关键词:国债;国债管理;社会经济发展;
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public debt of Ukraine and its influence on main socio-economic indicators
Introduction. Solving the problem of public debt management is one of the key factors of economic stability in the country. The budget capacity of the state and the stability of its national currency largely depend on the nature of the debt problem settlement. The need to address these issues requires finding ways to improve the mechanism of public debt management and servicing in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the public debt dynamics of Ukraine and model the nature of its impact on key socio-economic indicators in modern conditions. Results. The dynamics and structure of the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the period 2013-2019 are analyzed. The negative dynamics of the growth of the total amount of debt during 2014-2018 is determined. In 2019, the total amount of debt in hryvnia decreased due to the reduction of external and guaranteed debt, but in dollar terms increased, which threatens the financial stability of the country. Using the software product EViews 10 based on the Granger causality test, the system of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt (index) and indicators of socio-economic development: GDP growth rate, industrial production index, real income index, employment index, the index of exports of goods and services, the index of imports of goods and services has been researched. On the basis of the established causal relations the autoregressive influence models of the public debt dynamics on indicators of social and economic development are constructed, on which the error does not exceed 5%. Conclusions. According to the results of the constructed models, the negative impact of public debt on the main socio-economic indicators is determined, which is confirmed by the negative values of the elasticity indexes of socio-economic indicators. The built models serve as a preventive tool of public debt management, with the help of which it is possible to promptly respond to threats to socio-economic development by monitoring the level of public debt dynamics. Key words: public debt, public debt management, socio-economic development, financial security of the state.
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