基于马尔可夫切换GARCH模型的中国股市波动性实证分析

Hao Zheng, Fengjuan Guo, Jiahui Zhu, Xiangyu Ge
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文通过GARCH家族模型引入马尔可夫切换GARCH (MS-GARCH)模型,实证研究了由于国与国之间经济影响日益明显而导致中国股价反复剧烈波动的不利影响。实证结果表明,与传统的GARCH家族模型相比,MS-GARCH模型考虑了股票市场波动的内生转移机制,更准确地拟合了中国股票市场的波动,优于GARCH家族模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Analysis of China’s Stock Market Volatility Based on Markov Switching GARCH Model
This paper introduces the Markov switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) model by GARCH family model to conduct an empirical research on the adverse effects of repeated violent fluctuations in China's stock prices due to the increasingly obvious economic impacts between countries. The empirical results show that, comparing to the traditional GARCH family model, the MS-GARCH model considers the endogenous transfer mechanism of stock market volatility, which fits the volatility of Chinese stock market more accurately and is better than the GARCH family model.
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