基于生态网络分析的中国天然气供应系统弹性评价

Xueyi Li, Jinjun Zhang, Huai Su, E. Zio
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引用次数: 3

摘要

天然气对中国的经济和社会稳定至关重要。面对当前中国天然气供应紧张的严峻形势,鉴于天然气供应系统的高度复杂性和不确定性,天然气的稳定供应面临巨大挑战。如何提高其供给弹性是亟待解决的关键问题。界定了天然气供应弹性的内涵,提出了基于生态网络分析的系统弹性评价方法。所有结果均由公开数据计算得出。从静态角度分析,发现2016-2020年中国天然气供应弹性增强。从动态的角度,揭示了我国天然气供应系统恢复的特点。在此基础上,提出了提高中国天然气供应弹性的建议。本文建立的ENA模型为天然气供应弹性评估提供了一个新的视角,可为政策制定提供指导。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Resilience Assessment of China's Natural Gas Supply System Based on Ecological Network Analysis
Natural gas is of vital importance to China's economy and social stability. Faced with the current severe situation of tight balance of natural gas supply in China, given the high complexity and uncertainty of the natural gas supply system, the stable supply of natural gas faces enormous challenges. How to improve its supply resilience is the key to be solved urgently. In this paper, the connotation of natural gas supply resilience is defined and a systematic resilience assessment method is proposed based on ecological network analysis. All results are calculated by publicly available data. From the static perspective, it is found that the Chinese natural gas supply resilience increases during 2016–2020. From the dynamic perspective, the characteristics of the restoration of Chinese natural gas supply system is revealed. Based on the results, suggestions are proposed to improve China's natural gas supply resilience. The ENA model developed in this paper is a new perspective for natural gas supply resilience assessment, which can be used as guidance for policy making.
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