不完全市场和家庭对利率和通胀风险的暴露:对货币政策制定者的启示

Andrea Pescatori
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本文研究了摒弃代表代理人假设,引入家庭金融财富异质性的最优货币政策。不完全的市场使家庭无法完全防范利率和通货膨胀风险,从而在物价水平和稳定偿债之间做出权衡。我们为政策制定者推导了一个基于福利的损失函数,其中包括一个与家庭债务横截面分布相关的额外目标。偏离价格稳定的程度取决于债务分散的初始水平。使用美国的微观数据来校准模型,我们发现最优通胀波动率几乎等于过去15年实际波动率的20%。最后,研究了最优简单可实现规则的设计。超惯性规则的表现明显优于标准规则。超惯性规则意味着,利率对冲击的反应呈驼峰状。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Incomplete Markets and Households' Exposure to Interest Rate and Inflation Risk: Implications for the Monetary Policy Maker
The present paper studies optimal monetary policy when the representative agent assumption is abandoned and financial wealth heterogeneity across households is introduced. Incomplete markets make households incapable of perfectly insuring against interest rate and inflation risk, creating a trade-off between price level and debt-servicing stabilization. We derive a welfare-based loss function for the policymaker, which includes an additional target related to the cross-sectional distribution of household debt. The extent of the deviation from price stability depends on the initial level of debt dispersion. Using U.S. microdata to calibrate the model, we find an optimal inflation volatility equal to almost 20 percent of the actual volatility of the last 15 years. Finally, the paper studies the design of optimal simple implementable rules. Superinertial rules, which imply a hump-shaped interest rate response to shocks, significantly outperform standard rules.
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