市场异常情况下CAPM的实施效果如何?印尼证券交易所市场过度反应异常案例

F. Sembiring
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在检验新冠肺炎大流行期间印尼股市是否出现市场异常,即市场过度反应。如果事件发生,那么测试反向投资策略是否与实施相关。检验CAPM的市场风险因素是否会影响收益。所使用的数据来自印度尼西亚证券交易所(IDX),是2019年1月至2020年12月期间的股票价格,在大流行期间,这些股票有可能盈利或有害。通过形成被称为赢家和输家的投资组合,可以对回报逆转进行测试,以证明市场过度反应的发生。研究结果表明:第一,新冠肺炎疫情期间,印尼股市出现了市场过度反应异常事件。大多数股票的回报发生逆转,这些股票有可能盈利或有害,或者在大流行期间利润率上升或下降已被证明。其次,在疫情严重的印尼股市,短期内实施逆势策略是有意义的。通过实施逆向策略,从输家和赢家在每个观察期的收益之差中获得有利可图的收益。第三,基于CAPM的市场风险因素仅对亏损股有显著影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Well is the Implementation of CAPM in Condition of Market Anomaly? Case in Market Overreaction Anomaly at Indonesia Stock Exchange
This study aims to test the occured of the market anomaly, iemarket overreactions in Indonesian stock market at the Covid-19 pandemic. If the event occurs then be tested whether a contrarian investment strategy is relevant to be implemented. It will also be tested whether the CAPM's market risk factor will affect the returns. The data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) used are the stock price in periods of January 2019-December 2020, which during the pandemic were have the potential to be profitable or detrimental. Through the formation of the portfolios that called as as the winner and the losers, testing of returns reversals could be done to prove the occurs of the market overreaction. The results of this research are as follows: First, markets overreaction anomaly event has occured in Indonesian stock market in periods of Covid-19 pandemic. The reversal of return occurs for most shares those have the potential to be profitable or detrimental, or have been proven those it profits rates has increased or decreased in the periods of the pandemic. Second, the contrarian strategy is relevant to be implemented in the short term in Indonesian stock market, which is in this pandemic. By implementing the contrarian strategy, a profitable return is obtained from the difference between the returns of the losers and the winners through their each of observation period. Third, market risk factors based on the CAPM have a significant effect only for the losers stocks.
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