The Prediction of Earthquake Ground Motions by Regression Model

The prediction of earthquake ground motion is the first priority in the seismic design of a building. This investigation is aimed at proposing regression models for average peak horizontal ground acceleration of earthquakes recorded by seismometers installed at a station in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The majority of earthquakes measured in Chiang Mai occur in seven areas; namely, the regions around Sumatra, Nicobar Island, the Andaman Sea, Myanmar, Laos, China’s western region, and China’s southern region. The earthquakes’ epicenters range from about 10 to 2600 km away from Chiang Mai. The proposed model used 73 earthquakes recorded from 2006 to 2012 and was subdivided according to the magnitudes of the events and earthquake source zones. It was found that the average peak horizontal ground acceleration by regression models was attenuated by the distance from the epicenters. The results of the regression model were in agreement with the records of seven recent earthquakes obtained from Chiang Mai’s seismic station. The regression model has been used in the design of buildings.