基于模糊聚类算法的短期交通流预测方法

H. Xie, Fengyue Jin, Hao Li
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摘要

随着城市化的快速发展,城市机动车保有量迅速上升,城市交通供需矛盾日益紧张。目前,解决交通问题的有效途径之一是建设智能交通系统。交通预测作为该智能系统的关键技术,是实现交通引导与控制的前提和关键。针对上述发展趋势,提出了一种基于模糊聚类算法的短期交通流预测方法。利用交通流的基本特征参数,获取短期交通流数据并进行预处理。在此基础上,定义短期交通流预测评价指标,并通过发布交通信息服务,建立两个指标的“距离”度量条件,实现基于模糊聚类算法的短期交通流预测方法的顺利应用。实验结果表明,在模糊聚类算法的支持下,人工短时交通流预测的准确率大大提高。与二次指数平滑法相比,该预测方法具有更大的可行性和应用价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Short Term Traffic Flow Prediction Method based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm
With the rapid development of urbanization, the number of urban motor vehicles is rising rapidly, and the contradiction between supply and demand of urban traffic is increasingly tense. Nowadays, one of the effective ways to solve traffic problems is to build intelligent transportation system. As the key technology of this intelligent system, traffic prediction is the premise and key of traffic guidance and control. In the face of the above development, a short- term traffic flow prediction method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm is proposed. With the help of the basic characteristic parameters of traffic flow, the short-term traffic flow data are obtained and preprocessed. On this basis, the short-term traffic flow prediction evaluation index is defined, and the "distance" measurement conditions for the two criteria are established by publishing traffic information service, so as to realize the smooth application of the short-term traffic flow prediction method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm. The experimental results show that, with the support of fuzzy clustering algorithm, the accuracy of artificial short-term traffic flow prediction is greatly improved. Compared with the quadratic exponential smoothing method, this new prediction method has greater feasibility and application value.
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