The Impact of USA-China Trade War on Seaborne Trade Volume

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of trade conflicts between China and the U.S.A. on Korean seaborne export and import volumes. Research design, data, and methodology: This study employs input-output analysis (i.e. value-added and maritime volume inducing effects) that combined ADB multi-regional input-output tables with port management information system (Port-MIS) statistics from the year 2021. Results: Analysis results reveal that the China-US trade conflict induced a large drop in seaborne trade volumes of electrical and optical equipment, chemicals and chemical products, and other nonmetallic minerals. From perspectives on the impact of the USChina trade war, the variable of seaborne trade volume has more elasticity than value-added variables. Conclusions: C ombination o f A DB m ulti-regional i nput-output t ables w ith P ort-MIS statistics will expand the scope of trade research. It is expected that the formulated model will contribute to helping forecast seaborne trade volumes according to varying global trade conditions.