戒严令期间乌克兰COVID-19发病率动态研究

Leonid Havrylchyk
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摘要

COVID-19严重影响了我们生活的各个方面,尤其是世界各地人民的健康。高水平的传播和迄今为止缺乏有效的治疗药物对全人类构成了挑战。2019冠状病毒病是一种传染病,于2019年12月在中国武汉首次发现,此后病毒迅速传播到世界各地。2020年1月30日,世界卫生组织宣布爆发国际突发公共卫生事件,3月11日,宣布全球大流行。新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)与SARS、MERS等其他急性呼吸道疾病相比,由于全球化程度的提高,传播速度更快。根据前40例COVID-19病例的报告,大多数感染患者(73%)为男性,不到一半(即32%)患有糖尿病、高血压和心血管疾病等合并症。据报道,患者的平均年龄为49岁。这一组的死亡率几乎是2%。在乌克兰,第一例病例可以追溯到2020年3月3日。自乌克兰疫情开始以来,平均死亡率几乎为3.5%,患者的平均年龄为41岁。2022年2月24日晚,在这位俄罗斯领导人向其公民发表讲话后,俄罗斯对乌克兰领土发动了大规模进攻。当天5时30分,总统下令在乌克兰全境实行戒严令。在宣布戒严令后,由于空袭的威胁,大多数企业、食品和娱乐场所被迫暂停营业。各级教育机构放假放假,以后只开放远程教育,防止大量人员聚集在一个地方。至于COVID-19的发病率统计,在战争开始时根本没有更新或更新有限。因此,现在非常重要的是要知道这种疾病的动态应该是什么。为了研究这些动态,我们将使用SIR模型,根据该模型的结果,可以预测2019冠状病毒病的预期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 IN UKRAINE DURING MARTIAL LAW
COVID-19 has seriously affected various aspects of our lives, and above all the health of people around the world. The high level of transmission and so far, the lack of effective therapeutic agents have challenged all mankind. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, after which the virus quickly spread around the world. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency outbreak, and on March 11, 2020, a global pandemic. Compared to other acute respiratory diseases, such as SARS or MERS, COVID-19 is spreading faster due to increased globalization. According to reports of the first 40 cases of COVID-19, the majority of infected patients (73%) were males, and less than half (i.e., 32%) had comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular diseases. It is also reported that the average age of patients was 49 years. The mortality rate in this group was almost 2%. In Ukraine, the first cases date back to March 3, 2020. Since the beginning of the epidemic in Ukraine, the average mortality rate was almost 3.5%, and the average age of patients was 41 years. On the night of February 24, 2022, after the Russian leader addressed his citizens, Russia launched a large-scale offensive on the territory of Ukraine. Martial law was declared by presidential decree at 05:30 on the same day throughout the controlled territory of Ukraine. Following the declaration of martial law, most businesses, food and entertainment establishments were forced to suspend operations due to the threat of airstrikes. Educational institutions of various levels were forced to close on vacation, and later open only for distance learning to prevent the accumulation of large masses of people in one place. As for the incidence statistics for COVID-19, at the beginning of the war, they didn't update at all or were limited updated. Therefore, it is now very important to know what the dynamics of the disease should be expected. To study these dynamics, we will use the SIR model, based on the results of which it will be possible to forecast what to expect from COVID-19.
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