Short-term Kinetic Energy Forecast using a Structural Time Series Model: Study Case of Nordic Power System

Modern power systems are experiencing a gradual substitution of the classical synchronous generators by power electronic-based technologies; as a consequence, there is an increased interested in estimating the total rotating inertia. This paper proposes the use of the decomposable time series model to short term forecast of the total kinetic energy (KE) of a power system. The structure of the forecasting model includes three main components: trend, a seasonal and an irregular component. As the Nordic Power System (NPS) is expected a reduction of the total kinetic energy, this paper uses a time series of KE to test the proposed approach. A cross-validation process is used in this paper, numerical results of the mean absolute percentage error indicate forecast the error in the forecasting is below 5% for predictions one hour into the future.