Cláudio H. dos Santos, A. Modenesi, G. Squeff, Lucas Ferraz Vasconcelos, Mônica Mora, Thais Fernandes, Thiago Moraes, Icardo Summa, J. Braga
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Revisitando a dinâmica trimestral do investimento no Brasil: 1996-2012
This text discusses the data on and the stylized facts of the dynamics of Brazil´s gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) since 1995. It also presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly dynamics of the Brazilian GFCG in the 1996-2012 years that suggest new causal interpretations to the problem at hand. The data make clear the different dynamics of the GFCF in dwellings and other buildings and structures and in machinery and equipment - and, as a consequence, the crucial role of the latter variable in the dynamics of Brazilian aggregate investment. The econometric specifications, in turn, suggest shocks in the real exchange rate international commodity prices and public investment as underlying causal mechanisms of the quarterly behavior of the Brazilian GFCF.
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