用奶牛场的互动模型分析奶牛场的运作

Miroslav Záhradník, J. Pokrivčák, Marián Tóth
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摘要

本文的重点是影响牛奶生产经济的因素基于建模的未来影响目前的管理决策。我们从国家农业和食品中心- Nitra动物生产研究所(NPPC-RIAP)的经济和绩效指标数据集中评估了一个斯洛伐克奶牛场样本,参考了半集约化奶牛场和典型的荷尔斯坦奶牛场。为奶牛场管理者提供的EkonMOD牛奶决策支持工具将用于在小母牛替代策略中运行各种场景。如果首次产犊的平均年龄从30个月降至24个月,奶牛场可能会有更多的小母牛用于潜在的销售、生长或对泌乳牛群的淘汰压力。这种方法意味着,在小母牛发展的前两年,饲料和管理费用每年减少47,520欧元,销售价值53,750欧元的小母牛,使这两年的总潜在收入达到101,270欧元。在假设情景1中,半集约化奶牛场AFC的减少将需要替换的小母牛数量从290头减少到269头,也对这些相互关系产生的盈利能力产生了积极影响。在假设场景2中,AFC与假设场景1保持相同,这意味着所需的替换数量没有任何变化。在本文提出的最后一个不同的农场案例场景中,我们考虑了拥有500头多产奶牛的荷斯坦奶牛场。在这种情况下,AFC从26个月减少到24个月,使小母牛类别的喂养日数减少了12410个喂养日数,导致总成本至少减少了2.2万欧元。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ANALYSING DAIRY OPERATIONS WITH THE INTERACTIVE MODEL OF A DAIRY FARM
The paper focuses on factors affecting the economics of milk production based on modelling future effects of present managerial decisions. We evaluate a sample Slovak dairy farms from the economic and performance indicator datasets of the National Agricultural and Food Centre – Research institute for animal production Nitra (NPPC-RIAP), referring to semi-intensive dairy farm and typical Holstein dairy farm. The EkonMOD milk decision support tool for dairy farm managers will be used to run various scenarios in heifer replacement strategies. If the average age at first calving (AFC) is reduced from 30 down to 24 months, the dairy could expect additional heifers for potential sale, growth, or culling pressure on the lactating herd. This approach means that in the first two years’ heifer development is emphasized, expenses in feed and management are decreased by 47,520 € per year, and 53,750 € worth of heifers are sold, bringing the total potential income for those two years to 101,270 €. The reduction of AFC in semi-intensive dairy farm in the what-if scenario 1 reduced the number of heifers needed for replacement from 290 to 269 heifers, also having the positive impact on the profitability resulting from these interrelations. In the what-if scenario 2 the AFC remained the same as in what-if scenario 1, meaning that the number of replacements needed was without any change. In the last–different sample farm case scenario presented in this paper, we considered the Holstein dairy farm with 500 productive dairy cows. The reduction in the AFC from 26 to 24 months reduced the number of feeding days in the heifer category by 12 410 feeding days, resulting to the reduction in total costs of at least 22 000 €, in this case.
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