基于灰色模型理论的农村能源消费结构预测

Guo-liang Luo, Yuanmin Zhang
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摘要

本文运用灰色模型对农村能源消费结构进行预测。研究结果表明,农村能源消费结构不会发生较大变化,消费结构将向高质化、商品化方向发展。未来5年,在农村能源消费结构中,商品能源的比重将缓慢上升,生活能源的利用仍将占据主导地位,而在生活能源消费中,传统的生物质能仍将占据主导地位,电力的比重将缓慢上升,沼气的比重将大幅上升。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Forecast of the Rural Energy Consumption Structure Based on the Grey Model Theory
In this article, we applied the grey model to forecast the rural energy consumption structure. The research results indicated that the rural energy consumption structure would not change largely, and the consumption structure would develop to the direction with high quality and commercialization. In next 5 years, for the rural energy consumption structure, the proportion of the commercial energy will increase slowly and the use of the living energy will still occupy the leading status, and in the living energy consumption, the traditional biomass energy will still occupy the dominant status, and the proportion of the electric power will increase slowly, and the proportion of the firedamp will increase largely.
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